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Despite Bronx beating against Yankees, Mets’ hopes start and end with Johan Santana

 

 In recent weeks Mets fans told themselves it was nothing to worry about, like that first hint of a sore throat you tell yourself won’t turn into something worse. Yeah, sure, Johan Santana had been a bit off his game, but still, he’s Johan Santana.

Only now you can’t pretend anymore. Now the sore throat has turned into a fever and body aches, and you’re just hoping you don’t have the swine flu.

The Mets, after all, have hung tough in the face of all the injuries, all the bad base running, all the killer losses, but if there’s one thing they can’t survive it’s Santana at less than his best for more than the occasional start here and there.

It would be a lot easier to shrug off the beating Santana took in Sunday’s 15-0 loss to the Yankees if it came completely out of nowhere. But in truth, it’s been awhile since the Mets’ ace approached the form that made him so untouchable the first month or so of the season.

In his last six starts his ERA is 6.50. And this one, in which he allowed a career-high nine runs, comes on the heels of giving up a career-high four home runs against the Phillies in Citi Field last week.

Some of it Sunday was obviously a lack of command - he was missing spots by a couple of feet with his fastball and hanging his change up high in the strike zone. But his velocity is also down enough, mostly around 90-91 mph the last two starts, that Jimmy Rollins wondered aloud about it after the Philly game and pitching coach Dan Warthen theorized about it yesterday.

Warthen said Santana changed the grip on his fastball a few starts ago because of a blister on his middle finger, and thinks the new grip may have created more cutting action on the ball that caused a slight decrease in velocity.

Santana mentioned that he has “battled through” a sore back and a cracked fingernail on his pitching hand in recent weeks, but insisted those problems are behind him and he is unconcerned about his velocity.

“It’s all execution,” he said. “If you don’t execute your pitches the way you’re supposed to, it doesn’t matter how hard you throw. I couldn’t locate my pitches and they took advantage of it.”

Surely Santana will bounce back, perhaps even as impressively as the Mets themselves did Saturday after the Luis Castillo disaster Friday night.

It’s just that this team depends so heavily on him, more so now with the likes of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, J.J. Putz and John Maine on the disabled list - not to mention Oliver Perez in limbo - that any sign of vulnerability from Santana is somewhat alarming.

The Yankees can endure the kind of lousy week they just had and be OK. Castillo’s error helped, giving them a much-needed win, but even if their pitching hasn’t lived up to expectations, A.J. Burnett’s seven shutout innings yesterday were a reminder that they have much more potential in their starting rotation than the Mets.

Same goes for the Yankee lineup, and then there is the clear-favorite status they’ve created in the wild-card race should they not be able to catch the Red Sox in the division. The Mets already trail the Phillies by four games in the NL East, and right now they’re bunched up with the likes of the Cardinals and Giants in the wild-card race.

The bottom line is the Mets don’t have nearly as much margin for error as the Yankees to absorb slumps from their star players, namely Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Francisco Rodriguez.

And that formula is further complicated by their maddening habit of giving away games with all manners of mistakes. It’s always something, it seems.

Though it didn’t matter yesterday, Fernando Martinez made a terrible throw to the plate from left field in the second inning that could have been critical. With two outs and the score 2-0, he missed the cut-off man and allowed two runners to move up a base, both of whom promptly scored on Johnny Damon’s single.

At the very least the throw gave the Yanks an extra run, and this team can’t continue this give-away brand of baseball, especially if Santana’s curious malaise continues.

So while the Mets outplayed their intra-city rivals in this Subway Series, it is the Yankees who win two out of three and come away feeling better about themselves. Though Burnett had control issues early, he gave them the type of start they envisioned for $82 million, and if he gets on a roll together with Sabathia, life will seem wonderful in the Bronx.

Not so for the Mets. So much of their status as contenders, perhaps even their level of self-confidence, is built around their belief in Santana’s toughness and brilliance. If he’s not leading the way, who is?

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